Will Texas Turn Blue in 2024?

2020 Texas Presidential precinct-level results map

Texas Democrats hold our breath every four years hoping, against all odds, that this time Texas will finally vote Democratic. It seems like a case of self-flagellation, one we giddily participate in every election cycle while suffering from political amnesia. The hard reality is that Texas has not voted for a Democratic President since Jimmy Carter in 1976, almost half a century ago. Since that election, the state has marched to the right and only recently reversed course and started voting more Democratic. 

Here are some numbers to consider. In the past 20 years, Texas has moved leftward 9%, about 2% every 4-year presidential cycle.

We expect that trend to continue, but the Texas GOP has passed several voter suppression laws in this state and we expect those laws will slow the trend leftwards. Our expectation this presidential cycle is that we will move around 1% leftward, especially if Trump is the nominee. In 2020, Biden garnered 46.5% of the vote, finishing 630K votes behind Trump. We have to go back to Jimmy Carter’s 1976 election to see a percentage that high for a Democrat. Texas is coming to a tipping point, but when will we turn blue?

Statistics to consider

Gen Z

The Gen Z population (born between 1997-2012) in Texas is an unknown sleeping giant. In the 2022 midterms, 77% of national Gen Z voters voted Democratic. Locally, in Texas, there are 6.8 million Gen Zers, with only California having a larger population. In Texas’ 2022 midterm elections, 22% of Gen Z voted, a number that will increase over time as more of them turn 18. A modest 10% increase in their turnout could dramatically shift the election results in our state and create a very tight presidential race. Our household alone has 3 young adults who will be voting in their first presidential election, all Democrats of course. 

The Hispanic Vote

Texas recently became a majority-minority state with Hispanics leading the way. There are now more than 12 million Hispanics in our state, accounting for more than 40% of the population according to the most recent census figures. 28% of Hispanics voted in the last election with 58% of them voting Democratic. GenZ Hispanics voted at a higher percentage than any other Hispanic age group with 34% of them voting. As Hispanics continue to become more influential in Texas politics, their votes will carry more weight and increasingly impact state elections. 

Independents

Roughly 11% of Texans consider themselves Independent voters. They usually vote more moderately and, in theory, vote for either party based on the candidate’s views. We saw their influence in 2020 in several counties where Trump received fewer votes than John Cornyn did in the down-ballot Senate race. Take Collin County as an example. Trump received 252K votes in the county while Cornyn received 263K votes. In Dallas County, Cornyn received 331K votes while Trump received 307K votes. This pattern repeated all over the state giving Biden a boost while maintaining the status quo GOP politicians for many Texas Counties. As these statewide races continue to become more competitive, this group will exert more influence and could determine whether Texas ends up in Biden’s camp or not. 

The White Vote

White Texans have consistently voted for the GOP for decades in Texas and 2020 was no exception, with 65% voting for Trump. But even that percentage is slipping. Looking back to 2008 when Obama ran against John McCain, McCain received 73% of the White vote in our state. But, White Republican Texans skew older, consisting largely of Baby Boomers and Gen X. As this group ages and dies off, their influence will diminish. Additionally, suburban White women appear to be shifting their votes more and more to Democrats resulting in some Texas Suburban counties voting blue in 2020 for the first time.   

Urban Trends

Our state is becoming more and more polarized. Urban areas are increasingly voting Democratic, while rural areas are voting more Republican. There will come a point when urban Democrats outvote the rest of rural Texas, and when that happens, Texas will flip blue.

A few examples:

• Dallas County started voting Democratic in 2008 and now votes 65% Democratic.
• Harris County started voting Democratic in 2016 and now votes 56% Democratic.
• Even reliably red Tarrant County voted for Biden by a slim 1.8K votes in 2020, the first time it has done so. 

With Trump the likely nominee, we expect passionate Democrats to vote in large numbers next year in November. Will it be enough to turn Texas blue? No one can say for sure, but there are lots of positive signs indicating it will be a close match which likely will have Texas Democrats watching the news with bated breath as we wonder if Texas will finally not leave us empty-handed at the altar, again.